Ogun 2019: War of the zones

Ahead of the forthcoming general elections, Assistant Editor, Dare Odufowokan, reports that the battle for the governorship seat in Ogun State will be tough as powerful political gladiators from all the four zones of the state will be locking horns in the contest that will determine who succeeds outgoing Governor Ibikunle Amosun.

Ogun State Governor, Senator Ibikunle Amosun, failed to persuade the National Working Committee of the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, to replace the name of oil magnate, Dapo Abiodun, with that of his anointed candidate, Adekunle Akinlade, as the party’s governorship candidate in the 2019 elections. This became obvious when the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) released the list of guber candidates in the state.

For the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), a serving member of House Representative, Oladipopu Adebutu also lost the governorship ticket to Senator Buruji Kashamu. INEC said it is obeying a valid court judgement by recognizing the list submitted to it by Kashamu’s faction of the opposition party in the state. Adebutu had earlier been named as the candidate by the national leadership of the party.

Also on the list of 39 candidates from various political parties are, former Speaker of House of Representatives, Dimeji Bankole as flag bearer of the Action Democratic Party (ADP) and a two-time governorship candidate, Gboyega Nasiru Isiaka who now flies the ticket of the African Democratic Congress (ADC). Isiaka was the candidate of the PDP in 2015.

With the above scenario, the 2019 governorship in Ogun state may actually tune out as a war of zones, as all the four zones in the state are now having at least one major candidate in the race. This is contrary to the desire of Governor Amosun and other notable political leaders in the state, including former President Olusegun Obasanjo, to restrict the race to a contest between candidates from  the Yewa axis of the state.

The Ogun west senatorial district is yet to produce a governor since 1976 when the state was created, and Amosun was determined to break the jinx. He campaigned vigorously for the ticket of the APC to be zoned to the area and he almost achieved that before the party’s NWC overruled his consensus arrangement and ordered a direct primary election which Dapo Abiodun, from Remoland, a zone in Ogun East senatorial district, won.

The PDP from day one never zoned the governorship ticket to Ogun west. Both factions of the party in the state seem to had their eyes on producing a candidate from Ogun East too, as no serious contender emerged from Ogun West and Central all through the process leading to the primary elections of the Adebutu and Kashamu factions of the PDP.

On Sunday , September 30, the PDP conducted two separate primaries and elected two different candidates for the 2019 governorship election in the state. The Sikirulai Ogundele – led  group conducted their primary at the Marque, Olusegun Obasanjo Presidential Library(OOPL), Abeokuta, with Hon. Adebutu emerging winner – sole candidate, garnering 2,369 votes out of the 2,669 accredited delegates.

The faction loyal to Senator Kashamu, where Engr. Bayo Dayo is the state  executive chairman, had theirs at the PDP State Secretariat on IBB Boulevard, Oke – Mosan, Abeokuta. At the end of the exercise with 1,994 accredited delegates, 1979 of them voted for Adeleke Shittu from Ijebu – Igbo, in Ijebu North Local Government Area of the state, to emerge the gubernatorial candidate of the Bayo Dayo group, after Fatai Adeyanju had stepped down for him.

With the names of the two factional candidates sent to INEC, the electoral umpire, after initially announcing Adebutu as the authentic flag-bearer, made a u-turn few days later and endorsed Shittu as the original name on its list. Afterwards, Shittu voluntarily withdrew from the race to pave way for the anticipated emergence of Senator Kashamu as the PDP candidate.

Like Abiodun, Kashamu is from Ogun East and he currently represents the district at the national assembly. But he is from Ijebuland, another zone in the area which has also been clamoring to be given a chance to produce the governor of the state, thirty five years after the late Bisi Onabanjo, its only son to have been governor of the state, left office.

From Ogun Central made up of the Egbas, former Speaker Dimeji Bankole is in the race. He is unperturbed by the fact that outgoing governor Amosun is from the same zone as himself. He says zoning should not rob the state of the best hands for the job. The congress that produced him took place in all the 20 Local Government Areas and 236 wards in the state, according to the Returning Officer for the primary election, Mr. Chamberlain Amadu.

Not to be left out, the Yewas of Ogun west, preferred by Amosun and other opinion leaders to have the seat,have Isiaka in the race, but on the platform of little known ADC, having failed to bag the ticket of any of the two leading political parties. On October 3, he emerged winner of the party’s governorship primary election. ADC chairman, Gbolade Osinowo, declared that Isiaka, popularly known as GNI, secured 207,334 votes as an unopposed aspirant of the party.

Akinlade, the preferred candidate of Governor Amosun, had defected from the ruling APC to the Allied People’s Movement (APM). His defection to APM was announced at the House of Hepresentatives on Thursday. Not less than four other allies of the governor across the state also announced their defection to the APM during the week, swelling indications that Akinlade’s move may have the blessing of Senator Amosun.

Some analysts are also saying Akinlade, in spite of the unpopularity of his new party, may enjoy the support of the Yewa people in the general election. Insinuations that he has the backing of Governor Amosun to dump the APC and pursue his ambition on the platform of the APC is also expected to garner votes for him within and outside Ogun west senatorial district during the general election.

Examining the voting populations of the various zones, analysts say if the people of the four autonomous clans decide to vote along tribal lines, the contest may not be decided on the first ballot. “And it is most likely the electorates will put tribal consideration on the front burner on election day, given the acrimonious and sectional campaign currently going on,” Joju Daini of Voters Right Agenda (VRA), told The Nation.

“Ogun East with nine Local government areas lost the chance of having an edge over the other two zones following the emergence of candidates from the two zones in the area. So, its majority population will be shared by its town sons, Abiodun and Kashamu of APC and PDP respectively. They are however helped by the fact that they are candidates of the two leading political parties.

“Ogun Central with five local government have only Dimeji Bankole in the race. But he will be contending with the popularity of both APC and PDP in his zone. Whiel he is expected to enjoy the solidarity of his people, the unpopular nature of his party, the ADP in the state, will rob him of a landslide win the Egbaland. No doubt, he will share the lot with the candidates of widely known APC and PDP.

“The same will be the fate of Isiaka in Ogun West. He will benefit immensely from the clamor of his people for the governorship but ADC as a party is the major challenge to his victory in the race. Chieftains of the ruling APC, which is quite strong in the area, has refused to endorse his candidacy contrary to expectations in the zone. Instead, Akinlade, Amosun’s preferred candidate, has joined the Allied Peoples Movement (APM) as its governorship candidate,” Daini analyzed.

All in all, the race for Amosun’s job promises to be a very interesting and competitive one. Already, the candidates and their parties are all over the nooks and crannies of the state, struggling to convince the people of their readiness to offer the best leadership possible if voted into the government house in 2019. But who will carry the day at the end of the contest? Only time can tell.