Realignment of forces ahead of 2023 commences

Ahead of 2023 general elections, politicians across board have started regrouping and strategising to position themselves towards the contest. The trend is that prominent politicians are defecting and pitching tents with either the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) or the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Assistant Editor LEKE SALAUDEEN examines the trend and profiles some of the big wigs that have changed platforms.

 

THREE years into the 2023 general elections, a new political landscape is emerging. Realignment of political forces has started in earnest. It is normal that after general elections politicians who lost out in the race will chart a new political direction that would guarantee patronage after subsequent election.

Barely a year after the 2019 general elections, the body politic is being characterised with reports of defections of notable politicians from one party to another.

The two dominant parties, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) have benefitted most from the recent spate of defections. This development suggests that the two parties will remain the major players in the contest for power in the next election.

Given the on-going realignment of forces, political observers believe that things may not remain the same in some states where notable politicians and their supporters have changed parties.

This, they argued, will renew a fresh struggle for political power and ultimately alter power equations in some states.

For instance, former Ekiti State Governor Segun Oni is set to return the PDP. Oni, who was former APC Deputy National Chairman (South) had dumped the opposition party in 2014 for the ruling party.

He was elected governor on the platform of PDP in 2007. Oni said he has decided to leave the APC because he was not accorded his rightful position and respect as former APC deputy national chairman, adding that his followers and supporters were not well treated.

He said: “It is not about me, but about my political family, most of whom have their own lives to live and a political future they must protect.

They are not being treated well in the APC in terms of appointments. There is no going back on our decision to leave the APC. We are leaving by the second half of the year; we are moving out by Quarter Three.”

Oni who was furious about his suspension from the APC recalled: “When I was the APC deputy national chairman, some people said they suspended me from the party. Up till this moment, the issues surrounding the so-called suspension have not been addressed.”

The former governor was suspended on May 1, 2019, by his Ifaki Ward II, for alleged anti-party activities and his refusal to appear before a panel to clear his name.

His problem with the APC began when he sued Ekiti State Governor Kayode Fayemi and the entire party leadership after the May 26, 2018 governorship primary. He had challenged Fayemi’s emergence as a candidate and his eligibility to participate in the election.

Oni had insisted that, going by the constitution of the party, Fayemi, being a minister in the cabinet of President Muhammadu Buhari ought to have resigned his post 30 days to the primary.

He had also claimed that Fayemi was not qualified to contest, alleging that he had been found guilty of certain offences by a judicial panel of inquiry set up by former Governor Ayo Fayose and which also banned him from holding political office for 10 years.

However, Fayose’s 10 year-ban on Fayemi was upturned by an Abuja High Court, as well as the Appeal Court. The Supreme Court also dismissed Oni’s suit for lack of merit, saying Fayemi did not breach the law by resigning after the primary.

Analysts believe the return of Oni to the PDP will re-enact the struggle for the soul of Ekiti between him and Fayemi. Oni’s election as governor in 2007 was contentious as Fayemi challenged his victory at the Election Petition Tribunal in Ekiti State.

In May 2010, Oni won by a split decision (3-2) at the election petition tribunal.  He was, however, removed from office on October 15, 2010, following the judgment of an Appeal Court which ruled against him. Fayemi was then sworn in as governor on October 16, 2010, after Oni had spent three and half years in office.

Political observers noted that the two combatants buried their old issues when Oni left the PDP and joined forces with Fayemi in the APC. Oni was then made the party’s Deputy National Chairman (South).

The PDP has made another big catch with the return of its former National Secretary, Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola to the party. He was elected governor of Osun State in 2003 and was re-elected in 2007. He defected to the APC in 2015 shortly before the general elections.

His re-election in 2007 was challenged by the then Action Congress (AC) candidate Rauf Aregbesola. Oyinlola’s victory was short-lived as the Court of Appeal, Ibadan on November 26, 2010, presided over by Justice Clara Ogunbiyi ruled that Oyinlola didn’t win the 2007 governorship election. The court declared Aregbesola as the winner and ordered that he should be sworn in as governor.

Oyinlola was one of the signatories of the new PDP’s (nPDP) petition to the leadership of the APC in 2014, while seeking membership of the newly registered party then. The new PDP members in their petition alleged maltreatment of members.

Other signatories included former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Senate President, Bukola Saraki, former Governor Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers State and a host of others.

Oyinlola was the convener of the Coalition for Nigerian Movement (CNM), a platform established by former President Olusegun Obasanjo to unseat President Muhammadu Buhari prior to the 2019 general elections.

Oyinlola later announced the merger of CNM with African Democratic Congress (ADC) in May 2018. He said the CNM would work with other political parties and groups to end APC’s reign and forge a new direction for Nigeria.

But, the ADC failed woefully in 2019 to dislodge APC from power. The party failed to win a single state. In the presidential election, the party scored only 97, 874 votes. In Oyinlola’s home state, Osun, the ADC came a distant fourth position in the governorship election held in 2018.

The question being asked by observers are: Did Obasanjo endorse Oyinlola’s return to the party he (Obasanjo) dumped seven years ago and tore his membership card in public? Will Obasanjo throw his weight behind the PDP so that the party can win in 2023? Will there be a mass defection from the ADC to the PDP?

Read Also: 2023: Talk of Igbo Presidency is rubbish, says Dike

 

Oyinlola said at a rally organised by the PDP to welcome him and other defectors back into the fold that his return was the best option for him after studying the nation’s political development.

He enjoined PDP members to remain steadfast, saying that the unity of the party is sacrosanct in order to win more states in the next general elections. He reiterated that it is time to restructure politics in the Southwest for the people of the region to enjoy the dividends of democracy.

The rank and file of the PDP in Lagos State have increased with the return of its former governorship candidate Mr Babatunde Gbadamosi and his supporters. He was the governorship candidate of Action Democratic Party (ADP) in Lagos State during the 2019 elections.

Thirty-four political parties under the aegis of the Coalition of United Political Parties (CUPP), Lagos State chapter adopted Gbadamosi as their consensus candidate in the 2019 governorship election but he lost the election.

Gbadamosi is not a neophyte in Lagos politics. He was the Lagos PDP governorship candidate in 2011 and lost to former Governor Babatunde Fashola. He also contested the PDP governorship ticket in 2015 which he lost to Jimi Agbaje.

Gbadamosi said he was prompted to return to the PDP and align himself with the likes of Governor Seyi Makinde and others who prioritise good governance. He promised to use his political influence and work for a successful outing for the PDP in Lagos State and Southwest in 2023 general elections.

Similarly, the APC has strengthened its presence in the Southeast with the decision of the United Progressive Party (UPP) to fuse with the ruling party.

The party led by Chief Chekwas Okorie was one of the political parties that were de-registered by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

Okorie, who was the UPP National Chairman said the party decided to support the APC because it sees the party as a better option. He said the UPP had also supported Buhari’s second term bid in 2019. Explaining why he chose APC, Okorie said: “President Buhari and the APC-controlled the Federal Government in the past five years has put in place several social infrastructure projects across the Southeast zone, which the PDP could not do in the 16 years.”

He expressed the optimism that as soon as the Igbo political juggernauts in the APC start working as a team, the Igbo nation will make serious impact in the central government, including their expectation of producing Nigerian President of Igbo extraction in 2023.

The governorship candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) in the last general elections, in Ogun State, Prince Gboyega Isiaka has also dumped the party for APC. He said the progressive approach of Governor Dapo Abiodun made him join the APC.

Isiaka, a three-time governorship candidate, said he shared the values of the administration to “Building our Future Together”. He said: “Our movement is deeply progressive in its ideological orientation with a focus on progressive programme and policies such as human capital development (health and education), good wage policy, a functional and well-funded pension scheme, infrastructural development and caring for the weak and vulnerable in society.”

Kano PDP Chairman, Alhaji Rabiu Sulaiman Bichi and his supporters have also joined the APC in recent times. Bichi said the decision was taken following a call by President Muhammadu Buhari to join hands to move the nation forward, which was supported by Governor Abdullahi Ganduje. It became pertinent for us, he said, “to heed the call in order to contribute our quota towards the development of Kano State”.

There is a similar move in Edo State, where Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, the former governorship candidate of the PDP in 2016, has teamed up with the ruling APC. He was the first runner-up in the 2016 governorship election. Ize-Iyamu said he left the PDP “when we came to the conclusion that the vision of its leadership in Edo and ours were no longer in agreement”.

Ize-Iyamu said he joined APC to help resolve the crisis within the party. He said: “Sometimes, God uses you in time of crisis to bring peace. So, I just decided that the crisis should not deter me. I am in the APC to add value. I will ensure the party is well connected to those at the grassroots.

I will encourage governments to do their best, and that itself is one of the primary purposes of being in politics. “Moving to the APC is like a homecoming for me because I’m one of the players who formed the party.

So, it’s not as if I’m in a new place. The place I left (PDP), there are some people there who are not happy and throwing things but I’m not going to a throwback.”