Nigeria at crossroads over COVID-19

As the stay-at-home order in Lagos, Ogun and Abuja to curb the spread of Coronavirus expires tonight, residents are anxiously waiting for President Muhammadu Buhari to address Nigerians once again to either extend the restriction or modify it. With reports that the virus is spreading like wildfire and the complaints that the Federal Government’s palliative measures are not trickling down to those they are intended for, the Buhari administration has found itself in a dilemma. Deputy Political Editor RAYMOND MORDI examines the task before the administration.

The death of the Chief of Staff to President Muhammadu Buhari, Mallam Abba Kyari, from complications arising from his Coronavirus infection, has brought home the reality of the pandemic for many sceptical Nigerians who had held the view that the entire hullabaloo about the novel virus is a scam.

But, Nigeria has an uphill task ahead in its bid to curtail the spread of the Coronavirus pandemic, otherwise known as Covid-19. As the lockdown imposed on Lagos and Ogun states, as well as the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) expires today, President Buhari, who has the unenviable task of deciding whether to extend the restriction of movement or lift the order, is expected to address Nigerians once again to decide the way forward. It is unenviable because he will be criticised, whether he extends the order, lifts or modifies it.

State governors on the aegis of the Nigerian Governors’ Forum (NGF) have however pointed the way forward for President Buhari by recommending a two-week interstate lockdown. Speaking on Wednesday after a meeting of the NGF, its chairman, Governor Kayode Fayemi (Ekiti State) said members expressed serious concern over the increasing spread of the virus and have agreed on some measures to stem it. He said: “Governors unanimously agreed to the implementation of an interstate lockdown in the country over the next two weeks, to mitigate the spread of the virus from state to state. Only essential services will be permitted.”

Observers believe the four weeks lockdown so far has not achieved the desired result. The authorities do not appear to have maximised the opportunity of the restriction order to carry out mass testing of persons suspected to have been infected by the virus. In a country of over 200 million citizens, they say it is scandalous that less than 10,000 persons have been tested so far, after almost four weeks of grounding socioeconomic activities to a halt.

Yinka Thomas, a legal practitioner said the virus is spreading in spite of the lockdown order and the authorities appear helpless. He said: “As the unfolding scenario in Kano State suggests, the current figures does not reflect the true state of the country’s Covid-19 status. The unexpected upsurge in the number of Covid-19 cases in Kano should be a source of concern for the authorities. Two weeks ago, there was no single case of Coronavirus in the state. But, today, Kano has been identified as one of the four states that deserve special attention.”

Kano State recorded its first COVID-19 case on April 11 when a retired ambassador, who had gone on a trip to the United Kingdom, was diagnosed with the virus. Last Tuesday, the number of infected persons rose to 73 as 14 more persons tested positive to the virus. The spread of the virus was hastened by the index case. He was reported to have attended a Jumat prayer, following his arrival from the trip, rather than go into isolation as recommended by the authorities.

Ghana, a country of 31 million people, appears to have achieved more success with its fight against the spread of Covid-19. The West African country has emerged in the top 20 in the world, in terms of testing for Coronavirus per capita. After three weeks of lockdown in the country’s worst-affected cities of Accra and Kumasi, Ghana last Tuesday became the first African country to relax restrictions of movements, following the enhancement of her capacity to test for the virus, the expansion in the number of treatment and isolation centres and successful tracing of infected persons.

Ghana’s aggressive contact tracing and testing procedures appears to be yielding positive results. For instance, the country introduced the use of drones to expedite the transportation of samples to laboratory centres. A strategy of rigorous testing helped Ghana to identify that over 1,000 persons so far are infected with the virus, with nine deaths and 99 recoveries. At the end of March, when the lockdown came onto effect, the country had confirmed only 161 cases.

Today, 68,591 Ghanaians have been tested as at the time of lifting the lockdown on April 20. In contrast, South Africa, which has a population almost twice that of Ghana (59 million), has conducted about 100,000 tests. The picture in Nigeria is even gloomier. The so-called giant of Africa, which has a population of about 200 million citizens, has only tested less than 10,000 persons.

With reports that the virus is spreading like wildfire and the complains that the Federal Government’s palliative measures are not trickling down to those they are intended for, President Buhari is at crossroads over whether to extend the lockdown or not. Owing to its adverse consequences, many Nigerians have been anxious to see the end of the restriction order.

Since the lockdown came into effect four weeks ago, it has disrupted socio-economic activities of many Nigerians, particularly those in the informal sector that survive on their daily earnings. There have been promises of palliatives to cushion the effect of the exercise, particularly for the poor and the vulnerable. But, so far, only persons captured in the Federal Government’s Social Investment Programme (SIP) are reported to have benefitted from the scheme.

Following complaints from Nigerians, the government has promised to expand the list of beneficiaries. But, after four weeks of lockdown, the government is still preparing to roll out the palliatives. The Minister of Humanitarian and Disaster Management, Sadiya Farouq has acknowledged that deploying digital means may be more effective in the disbursement of the palliatives and that the ministry is keying into the idea.

She said: “We are now using other models, including the Bank Verification Number (BVN) to identify would-be beneficiaries. We are also using mobile phone networks to identify poor and vulnerable people in society. This is going to be faster, transparent and give room for more accountability.”

The Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) has listed the essence of the lockdown to include: “To give room for prompt detection and treatment of Covid-19 cases; limit transmission in areas where cases have been reported; limit the spread of new cases to other areas; enhance contact tracing activities and efficient use of resources, and improve sample collection.”

The recent reports of increasing deaths in Kano have worsened the fear that the number of infected persons in the highly populated state may be higher than what is being reported. The state government indicated last Monday that the cause of the ‘mysterious’ deaths is being investigated.

The Minister of State for Health, Dr Olorunnibe Mamora said the Federal Government would increase its support for the highly populated state to stop the spread of the virus. He said the population density of Kano could be compared to Lagos, which is the epicentre of the virus in the country. He added that it had become important to increase the support for the northwestern state.

Nevertheless, the Presidential Task Force on Covid-19 has attributed the increasing cases of the virus to the expansion of the country’s testing capacity and the fact that community spreading is now a reality. Door-to-door testing is now taking place in some communities in Lagos and Abuja. Chairman of the task force, Boss Mustapha acknowledged that the virus is spreading like wildfire and warned the public to adhere to the laid down guidelines and protocols for the Covid-19 fight.

Mustapha, who is also the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), said: “Let me remind us that this pandemic is real and it is spreading like wildfire. We must all arise to fight this potent and invisible enemy by adhering to the guidelines and protocols for Covid-19, which includes personal hygiene, social distancing, wearing of masks in public places, obeying the stay-at-home order, and reporting unusual illness to the authorities for investigation.”

A non-governmental organization, the Intersociety for Civil Liberties and Rule of Law has faulted government’s approach to tackling the crisis. A statement by its Board Chairman, Emeka Umeagbalasi; Head of Civil Liberties & Rule of Law, Obianuju Igboeli; Head of Democracy & Good Governance, Chinwe Umeche, and Head of Field Data Collection & Documentation, Samuel Kamanyaoku, said the slow pace of conducting tests in the midst of the nationwide lockdown is compounding the crisis.

The group said it is likely that tens of thousands of Nigerians are already living with COVID-19. This, it said, explains why some Western countries, including the United States and the United Kingdom, are busy evacuating their nationals from the country, “fearing an explosion of infections and harvest of deaths in the nearest future or coming weeks”.

The Intersociety statement reads: “Already, governments at all levels are now at crossroads as per whether to continue with the lockdown and be faced with citizens’ resistance, including a high rise in social disorderliness, deviances and crimes; or to discontinue same and be faced with an explosion of infections and harvest of deaths…

“The country’s crossroads situation is further fueled by a daily spiral increase in the number of officially reported figures of infections and deaths which have doubled in the past one week to 873 as ‘total infections’ and 28 as total deaths as at April 22, 2020. Apart from the increase in official figures of the above mentioned, the governments at all levels (with exception of Lagos State), including the Federal Government, have achieved little or nothing in the past one month of total lockdown. It is not only that they cannot point to a single milestone achieved, but also has been ‘fire brigade’ tactics, including lies, spinning and dramatisation all through.”

The group said Lagos is the only state that carries out a maximum daily testing of hundreds, followed by the FCT, while  the rest of the country have theirs in ‘tens’  since past one month. It added: “In Anambra State, the total number of its COVID-19 tests in the past one month is less than 50. Yet, some states, including Rivers State, have gone to the extent of dangerously pronouncing their states as ‘Coronavirus free’. This is even as no single testing machine and its qualified handlers exist or reside in such states.

“The recent harvest of deaths in the eight local governments in Kano is another typical example. For over 150 persons to have been buried in three days, with the Federal Ministry of Health and the NCDC playing to the gallery, is very shocking and alarming; and a further confirmation of our fears and doubts. If not Covid-19, what else would have caused it? This is even when the Federal Government deliberately failed to do the needful. The harvest of deaths should have been treated as a national emergency and the NCDC ought to have relocated to the state and collected blood samples of the deceased relatives, neighbours and other close associates who should have been located or fished out through their district heads.”