Battle for Agu-Awka Government House

By Raymond Mordi, Deputy Political Editor

This year’s governorship election in Anambra State is expected to be keenly contested by the three major parties in the state; the ruling All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP). Anambra has undoubtedly been a battleground for the three parties, following the registration of the APC by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in 2013 and the election would not be an exception.

The battle for the Agu Awka Government House, the Anambra State seat of government, has already commenced. Since INEC released the timetable for the election, the APC and the PDP particularly have been talking tough; boasting that they would take over the state, while the ruling party has been reiterating that it is has done enough in the last 16 years to warrant victory once again in November.

But, for Governor Willie Obiano, who is in his second term, choosing a successor from the ruling party to step into his shoes would constitute a challenge. Being the only state in the country that is controlled by APGA, Obiano would want to ensure that he picks a candidate that will sustain the legacy in the state, to prevent the party from going into extinction. Any political party with visionary leadership would engineer a good succession plan for the growth and stability of the state.

Before Obi took over power on March 17, 2006, on the platform of APGA through a court judgment that sacked Ngige, who was elected on the PDP platform, political stability had been an issue in Anambra. Ngige who stoutly resisted the attempt to manipulate him by the Uba brothers who were the godfathers that held Anambra by the jugular spent only three years in office before he was kicked out by the Supreme Court. His predecessor, Dr Chinwoke Mbadinuji (popularly known as Odera) served a single term of four years.

Against this background,  Governor Obiano would want to anoint a candidate that would protest his interest when he vacates office in less than a year. He would not want a repeat of what transpired between him and his predecessor in office, former Governor Peter Obi who played a major role in his emergence as governor in 2013; a development that compelled Obi to abandon the party whose growth he helped to nurture as governor for eight years and join the PDP. Obiano, therefore, has a herculean task on his hands.

The APC has never hidden its desire to take over the state, which incidentally was where the party first tested its might in an election immediately after it was registered in 2013. Against all odds, the current Minister of Labour and Employment, Dr Chris Ngige, who was the party’s candidate in that election, put up a good fight. Though he came third in the contest, behind Governor Obiano, the candidate of the APGA and Tony Nwoye, was the flag bearer of the PDP, he succeeded in registering the party in the minds of the people of Anambra.

Ngige, the old warhorse from Alor, Idemili South Local Government, did not contest the last governorship in 2017, but he was the rallying point of Nwoye’s campaign to govern the state on the platform of the APC that year. The APC performed slightly better in 2017, with Nwoye garnering 98,752 votes and coming second, after APGA’s Obiano who won the election convincingly with 234,071 votes.

The APC could have done better in 2013 and 2017, given the calibre of candidates it fielded in the two elections. But, the problem the party had then was that it had not been fully embraced by the people of Anambra, partly because it was relatively new at the time and also because it was largely regarded then as a party that is not meant for the Igbo.

Today, the APC seems to be more entrenched in Anambra, like elsewhere in the Southeast. Compared to previous elections in 2013 and 2017, the party appears more desperate to capture Anambra this time. Whether its growing popularity would be enough to win the November governorship election is another matter. This would depend on other factors such as its choice of flag bearer.

Though the PDP does not have the problem of acceptability, it has faced a different challenge in its bid to regain power in the state. The starting point for the party would be choosing a candidate in an atmosphere that is free from rancour. Even after the party lost power to the APC in 2015, the Southsouth and the Southeast geo-political zones have remained the last strongholds of the former ruling party at rue centre, whose popularity has waned considerably in the Southwest and many parts of the North. In Anambra State particularly, the opposition party remains popular, going by the result of the last general elections.

Nevertheless, since it lost power in the state to the APGA, 16 years ago, it has found it difficult to muscle enough support to reclaim the governorship seat. The PDP’s biggest undoing in both 2013 and 2017 was the division and internal wrangling within the fold. The party went into the two elections on the heels of a rancorous governorship primary. As a result, during the election proper, many so-called PDP chieftains openly engaged in anti-party activities.

Is the PDP going to conduct its governorship primary differently this time around? That is the question confronting the party, as preparations towards the November governorship election gathers momentum.

Overall, some of the factors that will influence the outcome of the November 6 governorship contest are the reach of the various political godfathers that will have an interest in who emerges winner, power rotation or zoning, the candidates’ financial war chest and ‘federal might’ or 2023 political calculations.

Anambra politics is the case study for godfatherism in Nigerian politics. Since the advent of the Fourth Republic, the state has witnessed some ugly trends, as political actors and their estranged political godfathers are always in contention for control of the state resources. For each electoral cycle, there is a godfather. The political brawl began with former Governor Mbadinuju and Emeka Offor. It was the fall out between Mbadinuju and his “godfather” and other power brokers that prevented him from getting a second term. The trend continued with the emergence of Ngige as governor. A serious crisis ensued when his political godfather, Chris Uba (a member of the PDP Board of Trustees and brother of Senator Andy Uba), sought to compel Ngige to fulfil a pre-election “contract” between them. Ngige broke ranks with his political godfather, following an unsuccessful attempt to have him removed from office on July 10, 2003, through a fabricated letter of resignation. An election tribunal led by Justice Nabaruma, on August 2005, nullified Ngige’s victory.

Obi also became governor with the support of the late Emeka Ojukwu. Obi’s successor, Obiano and the former governor were friends before they joined politics; they served together on the board of Fidelity Bank Plc. As Obi rounded off his second term, he brought Obiano back to the country and campaigned for him to become governor. But, they later fell apart after the elections.

Power-rotation or zoning has emerged as a major factor in Anambra politics. Zoning became entrenched in Anambra politics when Obi while rounding off his tenure in office, insisted that power must shift to Anambra North, which had not tasted power then since the creation of the state in 1991. It was initially dismissed by his political opponents as a non-issue, but after Obi successfully transferred power to a candidate from Anambra North, many stakeholders began to see the issue differently. Going by the rotation arrangement that has subsisted over the years, it is the turn of Anambra South to produce Obiano’s successor. But, opinions are divided over zoning in this year election.

Another factor is the amount of money available to each candidate to campaign. This factor cannot be over-emphasised with the popularity vote-buying is assuming in Nigerian elections in recent times. Incidentally, many of the aspirants vying for the ticket of the APC and the PDP are people with deep pockets that can bankroll the election.

Besides, the long walk to 2023 has begun and the permutations for the next presidential elections is expected to cast a long shadow on the Anambra State governorship election, as well as those of Ekiti and Osun states scheduled to hold next year.