2019: States where ‘small parties’ may tip balance
Some opposition political parties, hitherto considered as ‘small parties’ have gained so much from the ongoing defections and realignments that they are now considered crucial in the 2019 calculations, report Associate Editor, Sam Egburonu, and Sunday Oguntola
It would be recalled that alleged failure of some aspirants to get automatic return tickets in APC and some other disagreements amongst leaders of the party and the PDP were parts of the reasons that led to the ongoing wave of defections by aggrieved politicians. As a result, some ‘smaller’ political parties have so far benefitted from the development so much that they are already considered stronger than they have ever been in some states. This, The Nation investigation shows, may ultimately alter some previous permutations. Added to the overall complexity is the addition of newly registered political parties in the middle of the already crowded race.
About two weeks ago, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) registered 23 new parties. With their coming on board, Nigeria now boasts of a whopping 91 political parties that are expected to contest the forthcoming 2019 General Elections.
The newly registered parties are: Advanced Alliance Party; African Action Congress; Alliance for a United Nigeria; Alliance of Social 
There is also: United Peoples Congress; We the People Nigeria; Yes Electorates Solidarity; Youth Party and Zenith Labour Party
Considering that the 2019 General Election is only months away, some observers have said the new parties are not likely to make as much impact as the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which was in power from 1999-2015 and the relatively ‘smaller’ parties which have been in existence and have some elected officials, including a governor and members of the National Assembly. But, some informed observers, who spoke to us during the week, said the political theatre has become so complex that even the newly registered political parties cannot be completely dismissed in view of the fact that some top politicians, who allegedly sponsored their formation as a backup, may use them to pull some stunts during and after the elections.
Many agree that their coming on board and possible alliance with older parties in 2019 will definitely have some far-reaching consequences for the political space, players and stakeholders at the grassroots level, states and even at the presidential elections. For example, it is being projected that the smaller parties have been waiting in the wings to benefit from the post-primary crises that is feared may cause disagreements within the two leading parties. The anxiety is that as soon as the primaries for different elective offices are over, more aggrieved members and losers would defect and pick up the tickets of the smaller parties. This scenario is already being played out in Osun State for example, which will hold its governorship election on September 22, 2019.
While it could be termed as waiting to reap from where they didn’t sow, a chieftain of one of the newly registered parties confided that the situation could not have been any different.
“The APC and PDP have benefitted from that kind of situation in the past. So, if we do too, it is no big deal. It is nothing criminal or immoral. It is just the way politics is. If you lose somewhere, you can always go elsewhere to pick tickets,” he explained.
The chieftain added: “We are available to receive defectors from all parties. The more they fight at the other end, the better for us. We are willing to give them tickets at almost no cost, considering the cut-throat nomination forms they have to pick in the other parties.
“Our doors are always open to have as many as possible come over. We don’t have godfathers; just people willing to work and make a mark unlike in the other end where you have to be a moneybag to win tickets or get sponsored by a godfather.”
Alliances and other options
Investigations revealed that some of the parties are already in alliance talks amongst themselves and with some leaders of any of the two big parties, a plot designed to win the race from the back door. This scheme is fully dependent on the scenario at play, as no overriding ideology has been found to be the primary factor. For example, at the presidential level, some of them have left the space open for possible adoption of candidates from the leading parties.
The same scenario played out in 2015 when former President Goodluck Jonathan was adopted by the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), Social Democratic Party (SDP) and Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), among others. Today, these parties and ADP are amongst the major ‘small’ parties likely to benefit from the current scenario.
In 1999, the Alliance for Democracy (AD) and All Peoples Party (APP) adopted Chief Olu Falae as their joint candidate. Falae eventually left out to the then Olusegun Obasanjo’s PDP. Though available records show that alliances and coalitions have not always been successful in Nigeria’s political landscape, most of the leaders of the political parties, considering the option, insist that they remain veritable options for the so-called ‘smaller’ parties and the newly registered parties.
A political analyst, Debo Oke, said some of the parties might just restrict their operations to some or all the six geo-political regions where they have gained prominence, instead of going national for electoral contests. “For instance, they could target a particular region or even state for election. That was what the political parties of first to third republics did with great successes.
“So, some of them might just contest for House of Assemblies, Federal Constituency slots, instead of going for senatorial and presidential tickets that would be clearly elusive to them,” he pointed out.
Should they aim for seemingly accessible offices within their domains and communities of influence, it is believed today that some of the smaller parties are almost certain to win a few slots with which they can sell themselves for greater relevance.
Oyo
Oyo is one of the states where a relatively smaller party is believed to have garnered strength so much that it is believed it may make significant impact in the coming elections. In the state, the African Democratic Congress (ADC), for example, has been receiving massive boasts following the parallel congresses in the APC and PDP. Former Governor Rasheed Ladoja has become a major backer of the party with many belonging to the Unity Forum of the APC also joining. There are also disgruntled members of the PDP in the party as well as disciples of the former Governor Lam Adesina who are already in the party.
It would be recalled that in 2015, Accord Party (AP), which Ladoja belonged to, won many House of Assembly seats, forcing Governor Abiola Ajimobi to form a coalition with the party to enjoy majority status in the House. Keen observers said such scenarios may not be completely ruled out in Oyo and a few other states where key political players have moved to relatively smaller parties.
Cross River
In Cross Rivers State where former Governor Donald Duke is expected to run for presidency under a yet-to-be-declared platform, insiders said the development in Oyo may be replicated there. Clearly Duke remains a political force in the state and is expected to pull some weights to whatever party he finally belongs to.
Imo
Imo is another state where the ruling APC may have to contend with not only the main opposition, PDP, but also with APGA, a party which has received so much boost in the state in recent time. Chief Romanus Umunna, an APGA supporter and community leader, said his party will certainly gain from the face-off between APC’s Governor Rochas Okorocha and his Deputy, Eze Madumere, in 2019. How this will play out depends however on how the face-off in APC is finally resolved and the candidate that will eventually fly the hotly contested APGA flag in the state.
Abia
In Abia State, were about 3000 members of the ruling PDP, reportedly defected to APC at the governor’s zone this week, the ruling PDP is poised for an epic battle with APGA and APC, two parties that were considered small parties in the state until 2015 when Dr. Alex Otti of APGA took the state with storm during the gubernatorial election. Otti is again contesting for the governorship position on the platform of the party in 2019.
But Otti’s APGA is not the only threat PDP will have to contend with in 2019. APC has become a major platform in the state. Besides enjoying the advantage of being the party in power at the centre, the party now parades very strong members, including former Governor Orji Uzor Kalu and former PDP governorship aspirant, Uche Ogar, who is interested in the party’s governorship ticket. Observers said the 2019 governorship election in 2019 will be keenly contested as the hitherto small parties in the state have become big and ready for battle.
Osun
Osun State, which will hold its governorship election September 22, is another state where it is being speculated that two relatively ‘small’ parties in the state have suddenly become platforms to watch. They include the Social Democratic Party, where Senator Omosore’s SDP and the African Democratic Party (ADP), which recently received defectors from APC. Following the emergence of Mr. Adegboyega Oyetola, the Chief of Staff to the governor, as APC’s governorship candidate, some aggrieved members of the party defected to ADP, thus boosting the position of the party. First to defect because of Oyetola’s emergence is the immediate past Secretary to the State Government (SSG), Mr. Moshood Adeoti. He moved over to ADP, where he hopes to realise his governorship aspiration. Some of his supporters have followed suit. How far the defections would eventually empower SDP and ADP in the forthcoming election remains to be seen.
Flocking of big names
One major factor that is currently empowering some hitherto small parties is the flocking of big names in their nests. The calculation is that most of the big names, that have lost out in their previous parties will use their war chests and structures to boast the profiles of the new parties in their respective domains. That would mean that more members can join since the heavyweights are considered rich and influential in the polity.
How this will play out may not be immediately ascertained because, hindsight confirm that most of the candidates that use small parties to win elections might eventually defect back to ruling parties if they consider the move of special interest to them.
This reality notwithstanding, it is observed that as the permutations for 2019 gathers steam, smaller parties are suddenly pulling weights they never had and are seeking ways of winning themselves into more prominence. The game is as interesting as it is worrisome to the two big parties.
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