2023 and politics of zoning

Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai had stirred controversy over his suggestion that zoning of political offices should be dropped for competence of the candidates in 2023. Nigerians have warned that the proposal, if accepted, is capable of destabilising the polity. They insist that zoning should be retained. LEKE SALAUDEEN reports.

Eminent Nigerians have disagreed with Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai over his suggestion that the political parties should abandon zoning of the presidency in 2003. Instead, he wanted competence to be given priority over zoning.

Although zoning is not recognised by the constitution, it was a concept introduced by the parties to take care of the  interest groups in the country and the constant suspicion over power sharing. Analysts argued that it was in order to ensure equal representation of all ethnic groups and to reduce acrimony that the doctrine of Federal Character was enshrined in the Constitution.

Zoning in 1999:

In line with zoning, the North and South had produced two democratically elected presidents since 1999. Before President Muhammadu Buhari, a northerner, the late Umaru Yar’Adua, also from the North, took over from Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, who hails from the Southwest while Goodluck Jonathan, from the South-South succeeded Yar’Adua.

To those who disagreed with El-Rufai,  it is dangerous to come up with such suggestion at a time when the general expectation is that there would be power shift from the North to the South in 2023 after Buhari would have completed two terms in office. They argued that this is not the time  to drop zoning, giving the mutual distrust between the two regions on power sharing.

Need for power shift:

Elder Statesman and First Republic politician Tanko Yakassai has distanced the North from El-Rufai’s proposal. According to him, the Kaduna State governor lacks the locus standi to speak for the North zoning; he’s expressing his personal opinion.

He said: “One thing I can say is that El-Rufai is a member of the APC, which has embraced zoning since President Buhari came to power. It is left to the party to decide whether to retain zoning of key political offices in 2023 or abandon it. Though zoning is not recognised by the constitution, it has become inevitable in Nigeria. I am sure sooner or later, it would be adopted as part of our laws, because it ensures the stability of the country.

“I don’t think the APC as a party will subscribe to El-Rufai’s view. His proposal would not augur well for the APC as a party in 2023, because it would undermine the party’s chances in the South. It would be counter-productive for the party to adopt such a position, given the interest of its members from the South, who supported the North to clinch power in 2015 and retain it in the last general elections.”

Yakassai is of the opinion that El-Rufai’s statement had sent a wrong signal because APC members in the South would think twice on whether to continue supporting the party or not. This is because APC members would not see it as a statement by an individual; they would regard it as the opinion of a northern clique, who are determined to hold on to power. It is capable of sending dangerous signal to the South on their continued loyalty and support for the APC, he said.

A lecturer at the University of Ibadan (UI), Professor Albert Olawale, shared Yakassai’s view. He said: “El-Rufai is an individual; he is entitled to his opinion. Any other Nigerian can stand to counter his proposal. I don’t see Rufai as representing the North. There are many people in the north that would not share his opinion on this issue.”

Olawale, a professor of African Peace and Conflict Studies, said the general expectation was that there would be power shift from the North to South in 2003; that the North would reciprocate the good gesture of the South in supporting Buhari to win presidential election twice. Southerners should be allowed to have their way in 2023; if the North says no to that, I wish them best of luck.

He said there is no region that lacks competent people to rule. “The Southwest believes it is their turn to produce president; the Southeast is complaining of marginalisation in power sharing; the Southsouth felt short changed because their son was not allowed to spend two terms in office. For the North to want to retain power beyond 2023 will be inimical. The North should not support Rufai’s thought.

“I think we should leave 2023 for now and face the business of good governance. Buhari’s second term is yet to take-off fully, yet people are talking of 2023. The campaign ahead of 2023 is diversionary and must stop forthwith. People should keep their ambitions within themselves for now. Allow government to concentrate in the provision of basic amenities for the people.”

Equity and justice:

Former National Vice President of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) Monday Ubani said zoning of political offices, especially president should stay. According to him, the country is made up of different ethnic groups with different interests. Therefore, every region, including the minority, should be carried along in power sharing.

Ubani warned that El-Rufai’s suggestion would create more tension in the country. “His proposal is unrealistic. He didn’t take into consideration our differences, which we have been battling since 1914. We have not reached the level where merit or competence will be used as criteria in picking president of the country. There is no region that doesn’t have competent people that can rule this country.

He added: “If the North didn’t believe in zoning, why did they argue with former President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015 that it was the turn of the North to produce President then? To say we should abandon zoning now is like shifting the goal post half way into the game. Public office holders like El-Rufai should guide against making statements that can destabilise the country. Zoning has stabilised the polity. We have had 20 years of un-interrupted democracy, the longest so far since independence because the fear of one particular ethnic group monopolising power has been removed through zoning arrangement.”

Limitation to personal opinion:

A Senior Advocate of Nigeria, Emeka Ngige, wondered why El-Rufai did not take such position in 2015. He said though the governor’s proposal is supportable in an ideal situation, but not in the peculiar circumstances. He said the three or four major ethnic groups should be allowed to have a feel of presidency before abolishing the concept of zoning.

The lawyer said to do so now will be most unfair; because rotational presidency is vital for our national unity, cohesion and equity. He added: “In so doing, the zone or section whose turn it is to produce a President must ensure that their first eleven are presented as candidates for the office, thereby giving Nigerian voters multiple choice of capable candidates to pick from.”

Ngige noted that since 1999, no Nigerian has been precluded from contesting for the highest office on account of where he comes from. He said:”In 1999, Olusegun Obasanjo secured the ticket of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Dr Ogbonnaya Onu secured the ticket of All Progressives Party “APP). But, the ticket was strangely surrendered to Alhaji Umaru Shinkafi, who ran a joint ticket of AD/APPwith Chief Olu Falae of AD.

“In 2003 , more political parties were registered, enabling candidates like Chief Odumegwu Ojukwu, Jim Nwobodo, Arthur Nwankwo, Chris Okotie, Tunji Braithwaite, Gani Fawehinmi, Balarabe Musa, Olapade Agoro, Pere Ajuwa and others to contest without let or hinderance. Obasanjo won the election in controversial circumstance.

“Realistically, rotation is just in the minds of the electorate as nobody has been precluded from contesting for President on account of where he comes from. It is just one or two of the major political parties that promote the concept of zoning and had succeeded in doing so because they fielded popular candidates. If the other parties had fielded more popular than the victorious candidates, they could have won thereby rendering El-Rufai’s views academic”, Ngige said

Senator Shehu Sani has advised those mulling the idea of the North retaining power after 2023 to have a re-think because it would amount to ingratitude to work against power shift to the South. He recalled how the support of the Southwest led to President Buhari’s victory in 2015 and 2019.

Sani, who represented Kaduna Central District in the 8th National Assembly, said “it is an act of ingratitude  for any northerner to think that by 2023, he or she should aspire for office  in the view of fact that, Southerners, particularly the Southwest did everything possible to support the northern candidate to emerge as the president in 2015.

“It will amount to changing the rule of the game at half time, when you are leading two zero. It can also be likened to removing the ladder after you have plucked the fruit. The North should appreciate the support of progressive-minded nationalists from the Southwest or the southern par t of Nigeria who worked tirelessly to remove PDP from power in 2015.

“We have not forgotten that President Buhari had had contested three times without becoming President and on the fourth time, with the support of people from the South, he emerged the President of the country. It would be unfair after eight years, for us to think of continuing to hold the grip and levers of power in Nigeria.”

Sani argued that in an ideal society where ethnicity, religion and other interests play no role, we can think of that in the farther future, but where all these issues continue, in a political scheme of Nigeria, we can’t shy away from them. What we need to put into perspective is the fact that it will be a serious to unity and peace of our country if one part of the country will continue to dominate the political sphere of the country due to its demographic majority and land size, he stated.

Danger of power monopolisation:

Former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Gen. Jeremiah Useni said Nigeria is not yet matured politically to jettison zoning.

Useni, who was the PDP governorship candidate in Plateau State during the 2019 general elections, said “rotational president is best for us now. It gives people the freedom and opportunity to be involved in establishing and running the government of their choice at different levels.

“Nigeria is not yet ripe to have leaders produced from only one area all the time and so denying others. Even in the days of military rule, leadership was always balanced to give fair representation to all parts of the country. If you allow only specific areas to produce leadership, it will breed bitterness, hatred and crisis because many communities will feel being left out and not involved in the process leading to the emergence of leadership”, Useni stated.

Also,  the African Democratic Congress (ADC) governorship candidate during the last general elections in Ogun State, Prince Gboyega Isiaka, said El-Rufai was flying a kite. He said the idea may not be El-Rufai’s personal opinion but that of his group who had taken position ahead of 2023 presidential election.

He could not understand why the APC that used zoning to win presidential elections in 2015 and 2019 had suddenly found it unfashionable now. He said El-Rufai and his group have a big task to convince us that zoning is no longer desirable.

“I wonder why we are talking of competence now. There is no section of the country that doesn’t have competent people. To jettison what has worked in favour of a particular zone to deprive others is unfair. We have to continue with zoning arrangement until we get to the stage that it will not be relevant”, he added.