Why Ogun 2019 remains unpredictable

The March 2 governorship election in Ogun State will go down in history as the toughest since the return to civil rule in 1999. The major parties – the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) – are embroiled in internal crises that may mar their chances at the election. Correspondent ERNEST NWOKOLO takes stock of the squabbles within the two platforms and how the candidates in the race stand.

BARELY three weeks to the presidential and the National Assembly elections and six weeks to the governorship and the House of Assembly polls in Ogun State, the prospects of the main contenders in the race are not certain. The contest has been thrown open, because of the internal crises rocking the two major parties.

The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is going into the election as a divided house, with Governor Ibikunle Amosun’s preferred governorship candidate, Adekunle Akinlade, and his supporters jumping ship into a hurriedly formed political party, the Allied Peoples’ Movement (APM).

The ruling party and its splinter group are following the footsteps of the former ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which participated the 2011 general elections in a similar manner. The then Governor Gbenga Daniel’s preferred candidate, Gboyega Isiaka, and his supporters took part in the contest in the relatively unknown Peoples Party of Nigeria (PPN). The preferred candidate of the then President Olusegun Obasanjo, Gen. Adetunji Olurin (retd), and their supporters stayed in the fold. At the end of the day, this development paved the way for Amosun and his party, the then Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), which is part of the APC today, to win the election.

The PDP is yet to recover from that political bungling, as it has not been able to find its rhythm since then. It is also heading into the 2019 election divided. The  PDP has two main factions and two governorship candidates for the March 2 election – Oladipupo Adebutu and Senator Buruji Kashamu.

Though the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) recognises Kashamu as the party’s flag bearer, the tussle to determine the authentic candidate of the party is still raging in court. This will no doubt affect the fortunes of the party in the forthcoming election.

Daniel is yet to launch himself back into much political reckoning ever since. Though Isiaka had won the governorship primary conducted for the party at the MKO Stadium, Kuto, Abeokuta, by representatives of the PDP National Working Committee (NWC), he was denied the ticket. Gen. Olurin, who was the product of a parallel primary conducted at the Olusegun Obasanjo Presidential Library, got the governorship ticket with the backing of the NWC.

To protest against the injustice meted out to him and his protégé, Daniel instructed his supporters to defect to the PPN to pursue their political ambitions. He stayed put in the PDP, drumming for PPN from the rear.

A similar scenario is playing out today in the APC. The crisis in the APC is not unconnected to the party primary, which took place late last year.  Amosun’s protégé, Akinlade, emerged through a consensus that shut out aspirants, such as Senator Gbenga Kaka (Ogun East), Otunba Bimbo Ashiru (Ogun East), Prince Dapo Abiodun (Ogun East), Jimi Lawal (Ogun East) and Abayomi Hunye (Ogun West) among others, who were also locked in the battle for the same ticket.

In the run up to last year’s party primaries, former Governor Segun Osoba deployed suaveness, subterfuge, tact and diplomacy to ensure that whoever emerged the party’s flag bearer followed the prescribed guidelines.

This position put Osoba on a collision course with Amosun. This is not the first time both party leaders have clashed over the running of the party. It happened during the last general elections in 2014/2015, when the issue of who should get what ticket for various elective offices surfaced. Amosun who had allegedly cornered the party structure, by elbowing Osoba and his camp out of their political house and, in frustration, they moved their numbers to the Social Democratic Party (SDP), where they contested the 2015 general elections and lost. But, the governor and his team won about 96 per cent of the seats.

Osoba and his camp were to return later after the reconciliation between the two camps. What happened in 2014/2015 was about to repeat itself prior to last year’s APC primaries, but since Osoba and his group had experienced the disadvantages of being evicted from the party, they were determined to prevent this from happening a second time. They resolved to acquit themselves in a manner that would enable them to stay within the fold and battle the ‘bull’ from the inside.

The succession issue within the APC reached a disturbing dimension in October last year, when the governor announced that the list of 40 candidates of the APC for the 2019 elective positions has already been drawn. He dared whoever that was not comfortable with it to meet him and his team on the day of direct primary.

Amosun said the party elders were aware of the selected 40 candidates. The list included his preferred governorship candidate, Akinlade, and his running mate, Mrs Peju Adebajo, who is the Commissioner for Agriculture in the governor’s cabinet. Governor Amosun added that the candidates were derived from a consensus method allowed by the constitution of the party. Thereafter, he warned that “nobody should take Ogun people for granted or fools”.

Not done, he proceeded to declare: “By May 29, 2019, Akinlade will be our governor. We will have a landslide victory in the coming elections.”

Initial efforts to resolve it through direct primary for all sides and aspirants suffered many setbacks. By early November, it was obvious that there were no more meeting points between the governor and his loyalists and that of the camp loyal to Osoba. This culminated in the declaration of Akinlade as the governorship candidate of the party on November 3, by the state chapter of APC, following a separate primary it conducted. After conducting its own primary, the panel mandated by the NWC for the exercise declared Prince Dapo Abiodun as the candidate of the party. The panel was headed by Muhammad Indabawa.

Today, the die is cast. The 2011 political scenario is set to repeat itself and the APC would be the loser, because the party’s votes would be shared with the APM during the governorship election.

Akinlade is passionate about governing Ogun State. He has promised to lift many out of poverty, develop rural areas, enhance the revenue base of the state and sustain the legacies of the Amosun administration. He has age, bobbling energy of a youth and intelligence on his side. His legislative experience and stint as Special Adviser to Amosun on taxation has sort of prepared him for the office. But, coming from Ago Sasa, in Ipokia, a minority group has not endeared him to many who feel the minority should not be allowed to lord it over the majority.

Besides, the fact that he is being imposed on the people by Governor Amosun has not helped his quest. Many observers see this development as attempt by the governor to secure a third term by proxy. His perceived unimpressive representation of Yewa South and Ipokia Federal Constituency at the National Assembly has also not helped his case.

But, the governor is relying on his ruggedness, huge financial war chest, support from various transport unions, achievements and perceived firm grip on Ogun Central, which is generally seen as a major decider of the direction where the pendulum swings in every governorship election in the state, as the veritable ‘enablers’ to deliver APM and Akinlade in March.

Governor Amosun is also deploying the machinery of state to give Akinlade an edge in the contest ahead of other candidates. This includes using the state signage agency to deny other candidates choice places to erect campaign billboards or paste posters. Amosun is also accused of undermining the chances of the APC governorship candidate, by openly declaring he would not work for him.

Be that as it may, Amosun has many challenges to contend with in his desperation to force Akinlade down the throat of the people. A lot has changed in the politics of the state in the last four years and the Amosun of yesterday is not anymore the same Amosun of today, in the estimation of the people.

In many parts of the state, he is perceived as the first governor to run sectional and divisive government in history. Others routinely accuse his administration of totally leaving the local governments in comatose; the third-tier of government have been unable to perform even a fraction of their rudimentary duties in the last seven and half years, to the extent that most people rarely know the name of their respective council chairmen, because of redundancy, unlike what obtained before May 2011.

Again, some are not in a hurry to forgive him for what they termed the littering of the state with ill-thought out projects that stand the risk of being uncompleted or abandoned at the day.

Analysts say with the negative perception of the APC in some quarters and the anti-party activities allegedly being perpetrated against it by the governor and his loyalists, coupled with the crisis in the PDP, Isiaka who is flying the flag of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) this time around may be the ultimate beneficiary.

This is predicated on the premise that Isiaka is a familiar political brand in the state. He is a technocrat, intelligent, cool headed, youthful and hails from Ogun West, which is yet to produce a governor since the creation of the state. He was the pioneer Group Managing Director of Gateway Holdings Limited (GHL), the state-owned investment company, during Daniel’s administration.

The two-time governorship candidate has remained unrelenting in his ambition to govern the state. It can be said that the ADC candidate has no baggage and Ogun West is more united today to work for the actualization of his dream than it has ever been.

Leaving aside the challenges of inadequate fund, which is visibly slowing down his campaign, there is this unfortunate circumstance which often mars his chances each time he is in the race. The factor is still very much around today, and the fear is that it could work against him in this third attempt.

This factor borders on the fact that Isiaka has never had the good fortune of going into the Ogun governorship race with his adopted political platform, commanders and kingmakers intact. He has always been moving from one political party to another. In 2011, he had hoped to contest the governorship polls on the PDP platform, which was still formidable at the time, but he was eventually denied the party’s ticket and he had to move hurriedly to a new platform.

Same scenario repeated itself in 2015, when he teamed up with Senator Buruji Kashamu to run on the ticket of PDP, but without the support base of his benefactor, Daniel, and PPN supporters who were with him in 2011. Thus, he lost again to Amosun.

Now in 2019, barely eight years after, the situation has not in any way changed. Isiaka has entered the governorship race again on the ticket of the relatively new ADC, without the support base of Kashamu, his Omo-Ilu group and the Dayo Bayo-led arm of Ogun PDP who were largely responsible for the remarkable showing he exhibited in 2015, when Amosun escaped defeat narrowly.

Isiaka is hoping to triumph this time around with the goodwill and support of former President Olusegun Obasanjo, who was pivotal to the formation of the ADC. The party enjoys a relative popularity in Ogun State, but the truth is that the former president is a prophet without honour at home; while he has a bid following nationally and internationally, he is not a popular figure politically in the Gateway State. The only exception is the 2003 general election when the PDP swept all the states in the Southwest, excluding Lagos State.

There is also no denying the fact that the ADC governorship candidate is a major contender in the race to Oke Mosan this year and will likely dominate the field in most part of Ogun West, his primary constituency, come March 2, but his circumstances of always changing political vehicles and passengers since 2011 do not conduce for fullness, harmony and cohesive force required to deliver punches that could floor a formidable opponent in an election battle.

In previous elections, Isiaka has always squared up against Amosun, as his major challenger. From all indications, the APC candidate in the March 2 governorship election, Prince Adedapo Abiodun, would be his next albatross. Abiodun is an entrepreneur and real estate player from Iperu, Ogun East senatorial district.

Even the PDP cannot be written off yet. Adebutu could have been the candidate to beat by either Isiaka or Abiodun, but for the intractable crisis in the party and the festering feud, both physical and court litigations, between Adebutu and Kashamu, which has weakened the campaign effort of the party.

Adebutu, who is the Chairman of the House of Representatives Committee on Rural Development, is adjudged to be credible, non-controversial and has the financial strength to help the PDP return to power.

He recently told his supporters that people were using the court to stall his political progress and create uncertainty within the party. In his reckoning, the litany of litigations from the faction loyal to Senator Kashamu is just diversionary. He is confident that he would eventually be declared the party’s authentic flag bearer. The lawmaker representing Ikenne/Shagamu/Remo North in the House of Representatives is anchoring his confidence on the legitimacy of the Sikirulai Ogundele-led Executive and the outcome of the primary duly conducted by authorised Committee from the party’s national headquarters.

Though Kashamu dominates Ogun East politics and commands a large following through his Omo-Ilu group, but he may not fare better in the governorship race, because of the schism within his party.

Since he became a senator, Kashamu appeared to have confined his political influence to Ogun East. Many are watching to see how his choice of running mate, a cerebral columnist and journalist, Dr. Reuben Abati, would help his governorship ambition in Ogun Central.

The national leadership of the PDP has said it loud and clear that Kashamu is not a member of the party and that he did not purchase the nomination form for the Ogun governorship race. National Chairman, Uche Secondus, recently presented the party’s emblem to Adebutu. Yet, Kashamu remains resolute in his conviction that he is the candidate of the party, citing a valid court order given in his favour.

Indeed, Kashamu’s name is on the list of candidates recently published by INEC. In line with his style of politics, mixed with human face, the senator representing Ogun East in the upper legislative chamber has pledged make security and the welfare of the good people of Ogun State, among other socioeconomic packages, the focal point of his administration, if voted into power.

But the odds do not favour him. In spite of the division in the APC, Abiodun appears to be the candidate riding on the momentum his campaign is currently generating. He seems to enjoy the goodwill from Ogun indigenes and residents, particularly private sector operators who see him as one of them. This is not just because he is a successful entrepreneur, but also because they trust him to understand their plight. They believe he has the pedigree to address the challenges facing them frontally, particularly those of multiple taxations, deplorable roads that hinder movement of raw materials and finished goods, as well as the epileptic power supply.

Abiodun’s campaign centres on his quest to improve the welfare of the people, leveraging on the abundant arable land that could make the state the food basket of the Southwest, create jobs for the youths and triple its internally generated revenue (IGR), by harnessing all the inherent potentials of the state.

Also, Abiodun has been managing effectively the post primary crisis of the party. He has embarked on a reconciliation exercise, to assuage the feelings of the aggrieved members who were not happy with the way the governorship primary panned out.

Despite the alleged anti-party activities of the governor and his loyalists within the state party executive, which led to its dissolution and emergence of a Caretaker Committee, the APC governorship hopeful has been able to penetrate Ogun Central, by making a significant in-road into the zone which constitutes the support base of Governor Amosun.

The Iperu-born Prince too has been demonstrating the poise, confidence and business spirit that rekindled hope in many that he could make a whole lot of difference for good in the state, if given the mandate.

These are evidenced in the harvest of bumper goodwill from all strata of interest groups, leaders, opinion leaders and the electorate cutting across the three senatorial districts since his ward-to-ward campaign tour began this January.