Edo poll: APC, PDP set for another epic battle

Although 14 political parties nominated candidates for the forthcoming governorship election in Edo State, the contest is essentially a rematch between Governor Godwin Obaseki and Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu who faced each other in a fierce contest four years ago. But, they have now swapped platforms, with Ize-Iyamu’s defection to the All Progressives Congress (APC) last year from the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) and Obaseki’s defection to the PDP. Deputy Political Editor RAYMOND MORDI provides a backdrop on which the contest is taking place.

The fact that the two major parties, the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC), picked their running mates for the September 19 governorship election in Edo State from Edo North Senatorial District shows the strategic importance of the zone in winning the contest. Edo North is the district of the embattled former National Chairman, Adams Oshiomhole, and Deputy Governor Philip Shaibu.

The PDP has retained Shaibu, who is from the Uzairue clan of Etsako West Local Government as the running mate to Governor Godwin Obaseki, while the APC has picked Ganiyu Audu, a former Chairman of Etsako West Local Government, to run with its flag bearer Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu. In terms of voting strength, Edo North constitutes 26 per cent of the 2.2 million registered voters in the state. But, the major battleground is in Edo South, where the two major candidates come from; it has a voting population of 58 per cent.

Edo South and Edo North make up 84 per cent of registered voters.  They also make up 13 out of the 18 local governments in Edo State. This makes the election in the two zones more crucial politically. It also explains why the two major parties opted to pick their governorship candidates and their running mates from the two districts. Nevertheless, this development has turned Edo Central into the beautiful bride. Since politics is a game of numbers, both parties would seek to boost their chances of winning by wooing voters from the zone.

OSHIOMHOLE VERSUS SHAIBU

The way things stand, in Edo North, Shaibu would have to contend with Oshiomhole, who was a governor between 2008 and 2016, and Audu who is currently serving as a member of the Edo State House of Assembly representing Etsako West Constituency I. He is in his second term at the Edo assembly, having been re-elected in the last general elections.

Against this background, securing the votes of the district for the PDP would be an uphill task for Shaibu. In previous elections when he was in the APC, the deputy governor has had to ride on the back of Oshiomhole to win votes. This time around, he would have to face not just his former godfather but also the APC governorship running mate who is not a novice in the game of politics.

This could be complicated by the fact that the electorate in the zone may harbour some resentment against Obaseki as the man responsible for displacing their son from the pinnacle of APC national leadership. Thus, this sentiment may attract sympathy vote for the APC in the zone. One observer puts it this way: “Our people are not happy with Governor Obaseki. He is the sole reason why our people through Oshiomhole have lost their only voice in national politics.”

In spite of his travails in recent times, Oshiomhole is also likely to swing votes in the zone to the favour of the APC. As a former governor and former national chairman, he would have foot soldiers planted in different parts of the zone, particularly party members that have enjoyed his patronage. This category of people would not want the influence of the diminutive former labour leader to wane; they would not like to abandon him and the party, because a victory for Ize-Iyamu and the APC on September 19 would translate to more dividends of democracy for them and the zone generally.

The combined forces of Oshiomhole’s foot soldiers and those of the APC governorship running mate, Audu, in Edo North senatorial district are likely to be formidable. Until now,

AUDU AS A COUNTERFORCE

Audu has not been in national limelight because he has not contested for a higher elective position beyond a seat in the Edo State House of Assembly. But, he is reputed to be a grassroots politician. He was probably picked as Ize-Iyamu’s running mate to counter any supposed influence Shaibu is believed to have in the zone as a grassroots politician; being a former local government chairman, the APC running mate is also a grassroots politician like his PDP counterpart.

Audu who was born on March 18, 1969, can be said to be at home with the politics of Etsako West, the biggest local government in Edo State, after Oredo Local Government. He was the Transition Chairman of Etsako West Local Government from 2003 to 2004. In 2004, he became the elected chairman of the council, a position he occupied till 2010; having been re-elected in 2007.

The APC governorship running mate, who obtained his West African School Certificate (WASC) in 1988, also served as Executive Director, Office of the Governor of Edo State between 2012 and 2014. Following his re-election during the last general elections, he is currently serving his second term at the Edo State House of Assembly. He is a Moslem.

Shaibu, on the other hand, cannot be written off when it comes to the politics of the zone. As the incumbent deputy governor, he too would have people that have benefited from his patronage. Sentiments often play a huge role in Nigerian politics particularly; everything depends on his relationship with the people and the impact he has made on their lives. In Etsako West, for instance, it will be a straight fight between him and Audu. Both are from the area. Shaibu is from Uzairue clan, the biggest in Etsako West and with a huge number of registered voters. But, he has Oshiomhole to contend with; they are from the same clan but Oshiomhole is from Iyamho, a smaller town, compared to Shaibu’s.

DOGGED FIGHTER

Born on December 1, 1969, in Kaduna, Shaibu is a native of Jattu. He obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Accounting from the University of Jos in 2000 and a Master’s degree in Business Administration from the University of Benin in 2015. He is a Christian and was born in Kaduna to the family of late Pastor Francis Osikpomobo Shaibu and Lucy Momoh.

A fearless and dogged character, Shaibu’s political journey started in the mid-’90s when he was elected into the University of Jos Students’ Union Government Parliament (SUG) to represent Abuja Hostel and the National Association of Nigerian Students (NANS) Zone C as Coordinator for “Abacha Must Go”.

Shaibu entered the broader political spectrum in 2003 when he first vied for a seat in the Edo State House of Assembly to represent the people of Etsako West Constituency II on the platform of the defunct All Nigerian Peoples Party (ANPP). But, he did not win. In 2007, he contested for the same seat again on the platform of the Action Congress (AC), one of the political parties that merged to form the APC and won. He was re-elected in 2011.

Following the 2015 general elections, he moved to the national level when he was elected to represent Etsako West, East and Central Federal Constituency at the National Assembly.

No doubt, the election is going to be a tough duel between Governor Obaseki and Ize-Iyamu. Having faced each other in 2016, both are familiar with the terrain. The interesting aspect of the current face-off between them is that they have swapped platforms; Obaseki contested in 2016 on the ticket of the APC, while Ize-Iyamu was the flag bearer of the PDP.

EDO SOUTH

The major battleground remains Edo South senatorial district. Edo South has a voting strength of 58 per cent of registered voters. Interestingly, the two major candidates are from the zone. Obaseki hails from Oredo Local Government, while Ize-Iyamu is from Orhiomwon Local Government. Obaseki enjoys the power of incumbency, while his APC counterpart has the federal might behind him.

What will make the current election more interesting is the fact that both contestants know each other in terms of their strengths and weaknesses. But what may likely swing the votes for either of the two remains the calibre of political heavyweights queuing behind him.

Edo South, the Benin-speaking part of the state, holds all the aces. With 58 per cent of registered voters, any candidate that has the sympathy of the district is likely to carry the day. But, this time, it cannot be entirely so because the two gladiators are both sons of the soil. So, they are likely to split the votes.

Obaseki is from Oredo Local Government, which has two state constituencies, while Ize-Iyamu is from Orhiomwon Local Government, which also has two state constituencies. So, the home advantage of the candidates in their respective domains would be nullified at the end of the day, leaving voters in other local governments in the district to decide the outcome.

EDO CENTRAL

Though Edo Central is holding the shorter end of the stick in this electoral contest, its role in the election is equally significant in the sense that the region’s vote may be decisive in determining the outcome of the election. It is said to be a PDP-dominated area. The Speaker of the Edo State House of Assembly Francis Okiye is from the area. He was elected on APC platform and still remains a member of the former ruling party. But Okiye is obviously an ally of the governor; he masquerades as APC member in the day and a PDP stalwart at night.

Nevertheless, Edo Central remains a major battleground where both parties are likely to deploy a lot of resources during this electioneering campaign period. The calculation of Edo Central to produce the governor in 2024 might affect the outcome of the current election in the zone. The zone has been clamouring for the governorship for a long time. In all naturalness, the zone would want to take the shortest route to realize its aspiration. This could throw up an opportunity for the PDP to lash on to canvass for votes.

Obaseki who is from Edo South only has one term to go, giving him their mandate with the hope that the party nominates an Esan politician for the position in 2024 could be a catch to get votes for the party in this election cycle. But, it’s not the case for Ize-Iyamu and the APC. If he wins the election, four years later, he may be seeking his mandatory and rightful second term, which would further slow down the governorship bid of Edo Central.