Kogi: Bello, Wada plot victory in guber polls

Ahead of the November 16 Governorship Election in Kogi State, Associate Editor, Sam Egburonu and James Azania, in Kogi, report on the current moves made by the candidates of the two leading parties, Governor Yahaya Bello of All Progressives Congress and Musa Wada of the Peoples Democratic Party to win the election

SINCE Governor Yahaya Bello won the primary election to fly the All Progressives Congress (APC) governorship flag and Musa Wada emerged the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), observers have been curious to know how the choices will affect the fortunes of the two leading political parties in the Kogi November 16 Governorship Election.

The Nation investigation during the week shows that two major issues today remain very critical in the determination of who, between Bello and Wada, will win the election. They are the way the two parties handle the allegation of non-performance by Bello’s government and the zoning game that is playing out smartly between the two parties.

Non-performance debate

As the incumbent state governor, observers said it is expected that Bello, the APC candidate, will be largely assessed with his performance in his first tenure. This means that the ruling party, by presenting the governor, is ready to beat its chest that it delivered dividends of democracy in the last four years.

Even before the emergence of the candidates, all informed observers of Kogi State politics agreed that performance or the alleged non-performance of the current government will be the major campaign topic. Even other aspirants for APC’s ticket openly alleged that Bello’s government did not perform well enough to deserve a return ticket. They therefore spearheaded the campaign to deny Bello a return ticket. Though the campaign threatened the unity of the ruling party before the primaries, Bello eventually picked the ticket. When he did, his critics, especially the opposition PDP, said APC may have shot itself in the leg. They celebrated Bello’s emergence boasting that his candidature makes it easier for PDP to return to power in the state, since according to them the electorate are not impressed by his performance. Some of the major weaknesses that were pointed out as challenges to Bello’s re-election include the issue of huge arrears of salaries he owed civil servants, his alleged high handedness and the face-off between him and his deputy.

Except something happened between now and the Election Day, our investigation shows that delve political and strategic moves the governor and his team have made since after the primaries may have changed so much in the politics of the state that some keen observers said APC still has great chance of retaining the state.

We gathered for example that the attitude of most of the common citizens, especially civil servants in the state, has changed dramatically since the governor utilised the Federal Government’s bailout loan to pay off the embarrassing outstanding salaries. “It would be wrong to think that everything remains the same since the payment of salaries. Most of us are of course angry with the administration when the governor refused to pay us salaries. Things have changed. Not only that he has paid and apologised; he has also explained his predicament and now pays us even before the end of the month. I can tell you that we have been paid this month’s salaries. So, it would be wrong to conclude that Bello’s candidacy will not fly because of lack of payment of salaries,” said a teacher in the state capital, who asked not to be identified.

So, given that the governor’s critics have continuously accused him of non-performance, while he and the APC have dismissed the allegations and have, over the weeks, tried to show evidence of the administration’s performance, the position of the average voter on the matter would only be known when the votes are finally counted.

The zoning game

A keen observer will note that most of the candidates fielded by the political parties for this election are from the Kogi East Senatorial District. This is a reaction the people’s agitation for zoning of power to the area. This notwithstanding; informed analysts agree that the election will be a two-horse race.

This permutation is primarily based on the known strength of the ruling APC and PDP. Based on this singular fact, it is being predicted that their candidates, Bello and Wada, will be the frontline contenders though some insiders confided to The Nation during the week that the candidate of Social Democratic Party (SDP), Barrister Natasha Akpoti, may be the third force.

Taking cognisance of this fact, Bello and Wada are currently playing what an insider called the zoning game. Explaining how Bello has managed to boost his image in the past weeks, a source said on Friday that “Bello has become much more popular and hopeful since he appointed his Chief of Staff, Edward Onoja, as his running mate. Everybody understands that besides the fact that Onaja is on the ground and has been the defacto governor, he is coming into the calculations as a counter-balance to the Kogi East zoning factor. Until his appointment, PDP had expected to floor Bello on the ground of zoning, leveraging on the Igala agitation, since Wada is from the zone.

Besides the zoning battle, we gathered during the week that Bello may be gaining upper hand as he is being accused of making effective use of the local government chairmen to tackle PDP at the grassroots. It would be recalled that in the four years he was governor, he has failed to conduct local government election. The opposition, feels threatened are alleging that the governor is in firm control of the chairmen and their councils.

These recent moves that seem to have boosted Bello’s chances against PDP’s Wada, is not helped by the seeming disarray in Kogi PDP today. Besides the threats of mass defection that trailed the PDP primaries, some insiders accuse Bello and APC of sponsoring some elements to infiltrate PDP and promote disaffection. A source close to Wada’s family said on Wednesday that “although the senior Wada said he has put the result of the party’s primary election behind him, most of us cannot say for sure how much he will support and help the younger brother during this election.”

This sense of fear and uncertainty is a source of concern in Kogi PDP even as Bello, whose popularity before the primaries was nothing to write home about, has suddenly become the candidate to beat.

Speaking of his chances, Bello said shortly after Adams Oshiomhole, the APC National Chairman, and he visited President Muhammadu Buhari that he is well prepared to win the election. “I am not just preparing now, I have been ready for this election even before the last general election that produced Mr President, the National Assembly and the state Houses of Assembly. So, we are well prepared for the election. As for victory, I think by the grace of God it is assured.

“Like the chairman has said, we are not going to take anything for granted. Whether the candidate of the opposition party is strong or not, we will approach the election with all amount of seriousness and ensure that it is conducted freely and fairly and we will become victorious by the grace of God. On November 17th we will be announced the winner.”

Perhaps central to the current confusion in Kogi PDP is the intrigues that played out during primary election. It would be recalled that 13 aspirants bought the nomination and expression of interest form at N24.5m each in the party.

Many have predicted that the election would be free and fair. But the situation changed midway into sorting and counting of ballots, when some unknown gunmen stormed the venue of the primaries shooting sporadically and dispersing the participants. In the confusion that followed, one person died while several others sustained injuries.

But Governor Ahmed Fintiri of Adamawa State, the Chairman of the Electoral Committee, who escaped unhurt, convened a meeting of all the aspirants the following morning at a Government Lodge where he completed the process, returning Engr. Musa Wada as the party candidate.

Since then, the leadership of the state chapter of PDP, has been having tough time in its bid to reconcile the aspirants, which include former governor and elder brother of the candidate, Capt Idris Wada; Abubakar Ibrahim, the runner up in the election and Sen. Dino Melaiye who came a distant fourth. It remains to be seen how far the leaders have gone in resolving this matter.

But commenting on his acceptance in the party and his chances at the election, Wada said: “It is normal that in every contest, a winner must emerge; but in this case, nobody is a winner because as far as I am concerned, we all won. It is a collective victory.” Stating that all those who participated at the primary are aware of the challenges the people of Kogi are facing, Wada said, he was only elected to spearhead the battle to oust the unresponsive APC-led government. “I cannot do it alone. It is a task that requires holistic effort to get done; a collective responsibility of all of my co-contestants in the primaries and we shall be victories in this battle Insha Allah,” Wada said.

Given their common confidence that they will win the battle for Lugard House, Kogi stakeholders and other Nigerians are currently watching, with interest, the new schemes they are playing to gain upper hand.